Abstracts
Climate Change Impacts on Pollinic Productivity and Allergic Rhinitis in Montréal between 1994 and 2002
Michelle Garneau1, Marie-Claude Breton and Isabel Fortier
1Université du Québec à Montréal
garneau.michelle@uqam.ca
One of the consequences of climate change is the degradation in air quality resulting from increases in pollinic concentrations. The main objective of this study is to define the relationship between pollinic concentrations of ragweed (Ambrosia spp) and medical consultations for allergic rhinitis in Montréal, between 1994 and 2002, taking into account meteorological variables and socio-economic factors. The spatio-temporal dynamic of pollinic, meteorological, socio-economic and epidemiological values will be reconstituted from descriptive, geographical and statistical analyses. Between 1994 and 2002, over the course of the ragweed pollinic seasons (August to October), there were 7 138 consultations for allergic rhinitis in the Montreal Island area. The results reflect a lengthening of the pollinic season coupled with an increase in the rate of medical consultations. A significant association is thereby defined between medical consultations and levels of pollinic concentrations, adjusted for temperature, precipitation and average household income. The lengthening of the pollinic seasons, as well as the increase in the average number of medical consultations, combined with the significant correlation linking the temperature to pollinic concentrations, lead one to think that the population affected by pollen allergies will increase over the coming decades in Montréal, and that it will affect certain areas more than others. This tendency is consistent with the anticipated impacts of the rise in temperatures forecasted by different models of climate scenarios (IPCC, 2001).
2005-04-05 |
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