Abstracts
To Visit or Not to Visit? The Vulnerability of Tourism Events in the National Capital Region to Climate Change
Brenda Jones1 and Daniel Scott
1University of Waterloo
be2jones@fes.uwaterloo.ca
The National Capital Region is one of the largest tourism destinations in Canada. Two of the region's most popular tourism attractions are Winterlude (held in February) and the Tulip Festival (held in May), which collectively attract over two million visitors and generate approximately CDN$200 million in economic benefits for the local economy. These two events have been strongly influence by climate variability in the past, sometimes resulting in financial losses. Event organizers have implemented adaptation measures to reduce the impacts of adverse climatic conditions, but it remains uncertain as to whether they will be adequate to cope with the challenges climate change may impose.
This paper presents the findings of the first known assessment of the implications of climate change for tourism event planning. Multiple regression analysis of skating seasons was used to determine the influence of climate variability on the operating season of the Rideau Canal Skateway and to develop a model to explore potential impacts of climate change on the skating season and opening day of the Skateway under a range of climate change scenarios. Climatological indicators and thresholds were also used to assess possible changes in suitable climatic conditions for other Winterlude activities (e.g., SnowFlake Kingdom, ice sculptures), and the timing of emergence and peak bloom of tulips for the Tulip Festival. Climate change modelling suggests that as early as the 2050s, the Rideau Canal Skateway may not open until Winterlude begins and that the current dates for the Tulip Festival may be need to be changed.
2005-04-05 |
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