Abstracts
Climate Change Impacts On The Boreal Forest In North-Western Ontario: The Case Of The Forestry Sector
Rafael Munoz-Marquez1, R. Suffling, D. Scott, P. Deadman, and A. Perera
1University of Waterloo
ramunozm@fes.uwaterloo.ca
The study objectives were (a) to evaluate the degree of change in land cover (species composition) under forest harvesting and various climate change scenarios; (b) to analyze timber availability under different climate change scenarios, and harvesting; (c) to describe possible scenarios of land cover change as a result of climate change impact and harvesting to assist in policy-making related to land-use and landscape planning; and (d) to identify possible sources of both land-use conflicts and synergies as a result of changes in landscape composition caused by climate change. Located in North Western Ontario, the study area corresponded to a boreal forest currently under harvest (about 800,000 ha). We used the fire landscape model BFOLDS to simulate landscape change under different climate change scenarios (CCSRNIES A21, CGCM2 A22), which were then compared to simulations under a baseline climate scenario (1961-1990). We also developed an algorithm based on a geographic information system to simulate harvesting and regeneration rules after logging. The period analysed covered 60 years to analyze impacts in the medium term. Results obtained indicated that species composition did not change importantly among the scenarios of climate change and the baseline. They also showed that the combined impact of climate change and harvesting could diminish timber availability up to 35% compared to the baseline by year 2040. On the other hand, shortages could occur in as short a period as 20 years for harvestable hardwood and 30 years for harvestable softwood. Because of its economic and ecological importance, as well as the dependence of local communities within the study area on the forest, results found can have serious social, economic and ecological implications. Data obtained in this research constitute a valuable reference for planning the sustainable use of the boreal forest in North Western Ontario.
2005-04-05 |
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