May 6

Richard Klein, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~richardk/

Richard Klein said he was keen to accept the invitation to speak at the conference since Canada is at the forefront of adaptation research and implementation. He said he was curious about what Canada thinks it could learn from New Zealand. “No one has to tell Wayne Gretzky how to play hockey.” He added that Canada is fortunate to have researchers like Barry Smit and Stewart Cohen who have chosen Canada as their home.

Klein remarked on the transition in policy research from addressing the question So what? to addressing the question What to do? This transition was one topic of discussion at the recent Convention of the Parties meeting in Buenos Aires. There it was agreed that adaptation research needs climate models to answer the first question. Models, however, do not address what to do.

Klein noted that vulnerability to climate change impacts is not only determined by climate change but also by local and social factors. For example, the 1990s heat waves in Europe and India exposed the vulnerability of different groups. In Europe, the elderly and isolated and those lacking a social network were most affected whereas in India agricultural labourers and the poor were the most vulnerable. “If we don’t understand these factors, we can’t answer What to do?”

If researchers want to answer the information demands of policymakers for adaptation, Klein suggested four key areas for focus: issue identification and awareness raising, priority setting, strategic planning and policy development, and operational decision- making. These all necessitate research for adaptation.

Climate change impact and adaptation research both aim to understand the impacts of climate change and how to reduce vulnerability, Klein said, but suggested they were “different paths.” Research on the impact of climate change is ever improving as, for example, more climate variables are included in models (e.g., ice cover) and greater stakeholder involvement is being sought.

Adaptation research, on the other hand, relies increasingly on qualitative methods that consider each situation unique. The focus is on adaptive capacity where results are not simply communicated to stakeholders but where the latter are seen as “objects of study.” Climate impact and adaptation research “are two pieces of the same puzzle but the pieces don’t fit,” said Klein.

Climate impact research has developed robust methods and tools over the past two decades. However they will only ever be able to tell part of the story. Implementing adaptation research requires a shift by relevant actors from facilitating to implementing adaptation with a move from the global to local level. As a result, Klein suggested that “there is a mismatch in both spatial and temporal scale between scenario- and model- based information” and the needs required by those typically involved in implementing adaptation options.

Providing an overview of the tools used to assess impact and adaptive capacity, Klein noted that global climate models are very effective impact assessments at the global scale but have little relevance for assessing adaptive capacity at the implementation level. He noted that most adaptive research tools (e.g., stakeholder participation) work well at both the local and national level. Interestingly, analogue studies are valuable and relevant for both impact and adaptive capacity assessment.

The information demands of the decision-makers can be met in three ways: investing in further development of tools for participatory climate adaptation research, convincing researchers and stakeholders of the benefits of using these tools, and successfully combining the results of impact and adaptation research. “Models are sexy,” commented Klein, and thanks to them there is increased knowledge of risk. Now knowledge is needed on how to adapt to this risk.

Klein suggested that the future of adaptation research lies in

increased emphasis on analyzing the process of adaptation

issues of perception

the determinants of adaptive capacity

the development of better tools and guidance for decision-making under conditions of uncertainty.

Climate change is not just a question of absolute concentrations of greenhouse gases and rapid temperature changes but how to adapt. Klein also noted that the limits of adaptation—technical, cultural, and financial—must be identified. Climate change must be incorporated into water management, agricultural and other resource planning activities, which in turn must be analyzed and researched in the international, national, regional, and local contexts.

2005-04-05