Abstracts - Posters
Modeling the Relationship Between Temperature and Foodborne Disease
Manon Fleury1, Dominique Charron, John Holt and Abdel Maarouf
1Public Health Agency of Canada
Manon_D_Fleury@phac-aspc.gc.ca
Seasonal variation in the incidence of enteric infections in the Canadian population is thought to be primarily due to warmer ambient temperatures in summer. In order to further explore this hypothesis, and to define the effect of ambient temperature on the occurrence of enteric disease, we investigated the seasonal patterns of the enteric pathogens Salmonella, Campylobacter and E. coli, in Alberta and Newfoundland-Labrador between 1992 and 2000. The project examined the relationship between weekly occurrence of enteric illness and average ambient temperature, looking particularly at the effect of seasonal adjustments on the estimated models. This paper explores different types of regression methods for the analysis of time series data. These methods are becoming widely used for environmental time series analyses because they permit flexible adjustments for non-linear confounding effects of time variations, seasonality and weather variables. Results indicate a strong non-linear association, beyond seasonal effects, between ambient temperature and the occurrence of three enteric infections in Alberta. Meanwhile the results from Newfoundland-Labrador, suggests very little response due to temperature. To conclude the association between temperature and enteric diseases is important to consider in light of future climate change projections.
2005-04-06 |
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