Abstracts - Posters
Historical Climate and Stream Flow Trends and Water Demand Analysis in the Calgary Region
Stephen Grasby1 and Zhuoheng Chen
1Natural Resources Canada
sgrasby@nrcan.gc.ca
The city of Calgary's population could double in the next 60 years based on current population growth trends. This population growth will place increasing pressures on water supply in the region. Increased water efficiency could meet much of the growth in demand from increasing population. We examine here what additional demand growth might occur in response to climate change as well as potential impacts on water supply.
Climate time series, historical stream flow rate, and water production data in the Calgary region were analyzed to determine the relationship between climate variations and water supply and demand. Climate trend analysis indicates that the mean and minimum annual temperatures have increased ~0.9°C and ~1.1°C in the past 100 years respectively. During this trend of warming temperatures, stream base-flows for the Bow River are constant, however summer flow rates show a declining pattern. On the demand side, examination of the relationship between the historical water production and daily temperature has found that percapita water-demand is stable through most of the year, however it increases drastically and appears to follow an exponential relationship when daily maximum temperature exceed a critical threshold (~10°C). To assess the impact of the noted warming trend, future climate change scenarios (constrained by past climate trends) were generated for the Calgary area.
2005-04-06 |
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