Abstracts - Posters

Great Lakes Coastal Wetland Communities: Vulnerability and Adaptation of Vegetation Communities to Climate Change

Andrea J. Hebb¹, L.D. Mortsch, P. Deadman and J. Ingram
¹Environment Canada
ajhebb@fes.uwaterloo.ca

In the project "Great Lakes Coastal Wetland Communities: Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Response to Adaptation Strategies" the response of wetland vegetation communities to water level changes on Lakes Erie and Ontario coastal wetlands were simulated with a rule-based model that was developed within a geographic information system (GIS). For each of the nine wetland sites, elevation models were constructed from land elevation and lake bathymetry data. The elevation models were then used to develop two input grids for the model: water depth and duration of hydrologic condition (i.e. duration that a cell has been dewatered or flooded). A series of if-then statements were applied to these two input grids to simulate the spatial distribution and area of the wetland vegetation communities to lake level changes. Historical wetland data were used to validate the model. Projected lake level changes from climate change scenarios were applied to determine the response of the wetland vegetation communities. Preliminary output has indicated that the model is moderately successful in simulating historical response with up to 75% of the cells correctly estimated. The output does indicate an expansion of drier wetland communities with projected lake level declines.

2005-04-06