Abstracts - Posters

Definition of Meteorological Time Series for Use in a Hydrological Model to Simulate Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Discharge

Renaud Quilbé¹, Nguyen Bao Trinh and Alain Rousseau
¹Institut national de la recherche scientifique - Eau, Terre et Environnement (INRS-ETE)
renaud_quilbe@ete.inrs.ca

The development of future meteorological time series is of great importance for the use of hydrological or agrometeorological models for predictive purposes. The approach adopted consists of developing a scenario of meteorological time series with the help of two general circulation models (GCM), CGCM2 and HadCM3, and using new SRES greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The uncertainties related to the choice of models and scenarios are evaluated. These meteorological time series have been integrated into the GIBSI modeling system to simulate climate change impacts on seasonal discharge into the Chaudière basin. Two methods are used and compared: (i) the incremental method, which consists of calculating an average monthly variation in temperature and precipitation compared to a reference period, then applying those disturbances to the time series used in GIBSI; and (ii) the direct method, which uses daily time series simulated by the GCMs for the two periods. The value of using spatial scaling of meteorological data derived from the GCMs with the help of SDSM software is also evaluated. This presentation will discuss the problem and will focus on the methodological approach, as well as the preliminary results.

2005-04-06