Abstracts - Posters

The Day After Tomorrow is a Fiction "-Can Third World Countries Cope With The Uncertainties of Climate Change?"

John Vorster Charles
Vitred Int'l
jakisumu@yahoo.com

The developing countries have seen climate change as a strictly environmental problem. The diversity and complexity of local social and environmental problems obscured the global and developmental dimensions. But, increasingly the issue has reached the realm of development action which calls for more concerted efforts. It is until mid 1990s, the dominant view of climate change was the Earth's climate system has changed gradually in response to both natural and human-induced processes. The Scientists and policy makers have been focusing much of the attention on the meeting point between environment and development. There is little doubt today that human activities are contributing to environmental degradation on a global scale, which has had a devastating effects on people's lives. Evidence pieced together over the few decades, however, shows that climate has changed much more rapidly and therefore could do so a gain in the near future. The ecological drama currently unfolding may take other unpredictable dimensions. Among these is the possible accentuation of socio-economic disparities, mainly in the least developed countries, as the number of the displaced people increases and economic migrants from South flood to the North, exacerbating racial and xenophobic tensions. Scientific uncertainty regarding the scope, timing and magnitude of climate change still abounds. However, following a 'no regrets' policy, the imperative to curb the trend of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration in the atmosphere and thus limit anthropogenic interference with the climate systems remains. It is important not to be fatalistic about the threats posed by abrupt climate change. Societies have faced these changes for decades and have learned to adapt through various mechanisms such as developing crop irrigation and migrating away to hospitable grounds. Nevertheless, because climate changes likely continue in the coming decades, denying the likelihood or downplaying the relevance of past abrupt events could be costly to the developing world. It is very important that the developing countries needs to be supported in exploring ways to achieve development objectives in a more sustainable manner. Alongside that, the developing countries should adopt environmentally sound policies that are compatible with their development needs, hence avoiding the mistakes of past events. The gradual changes along with other human alterations of the climate systems such as land use , are producing conditions in the Earth's climate that are outside the range of recent historical experience. Although it is not known whether these changes will trigger more abrupt climate changes, past abrupt changes have been especially common when the climate changes itself was being rapidly altered.

This paper will explore much of the complex dynamics of climate change by showing the human and social dimensions by focusing the vulnerability of Third world's nations. Secondly the gives an account of the socio-economic vulnerability of these communities demands that the question of equity, in all forms, needs to be urgently addressed if the climate change debate has to remain meaningful. Finally the paper will examine tremendous challenges posed by climate change, especially in the Third World by showing the inability of its people to grapple with environmental degradation due to lack of institutional, economics and financial capacity to support such alarming calls. In summary the paper will account for the much experience gained from the developed nations in relation to that of the developing countries as it is very ironical as the North and South are way forward advanced and driven further apart by economic forces. Consequently, unless people can take-up successful adaptation strategies, food security will become increasingly difficult to achieve and humanitarian crisis may be seriously exacerbated.

2005-04-06